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Blogoir: August

Training: What If Anything Works (And Why)?

31st August 2010

Finally! The 'feedback' compilation arrives from a course I ran a few months ago for EU colleagues in Brussels on the general theme of Ethical Dilemmas in Diplomacy.

Everyone is dutifully tasked to complete these forms at the end of a course. A bundle of these forms show trends. Were the great mass of people pleased with what they heard, or not? What sessions stood out on the day? Any obvious clunkers?

But what catch the eye (of course) are the disobliging but somehow oddly perceptive sneers of the disgruntled few:

Rather patronising and arrogant style, giving examples/descriptions irrelevant to the topic of the training. Rather a stroll down the memory lane of a retired diplomat

For all the impressive scale of the global training industry these days, the whole business is to a large extent hit and miss.

F'rinstance. How many readers here have had professional training courses of some sort since starting work?

Answer: everyone.

What courses actually imparted something memorable and operationally useful?

Which of those courses gave insights you can recall and still use weeks, months or even years afterwards?

Almost none.

Back in the FCO I recall a senior management meeting when I suggested that we freeze 'training' until we had done some sort of survey of which training courses had actually been effective, and what techniques had been especially worthwhile in getting key points across to the punters. Could any one there immediately recall a brilliant training outcome?

Glazed uneasy looks around the table, followed by quick change of subject.

Back in 1992 or so I did a good management course with the London Business School. I can still remember a number of the sessions, but above all one on How to Break Bad News.

You need to tell someone that they have been fired or have not promoted or that a relative has died suddenly? Yes, there are ways to do this which help the person hearing the bad news cope with the bolt from the blue, and which help the person giving the bad news pace the occasion firmly but kindly.

I have had to break bad news to people thereafter, and (on the whole) have done so well, drawing on the practical techniques imparted on that one training session. Really good.

Otherwise I have sat through all sorts of other courses which have made no impact whatsoever, other than to allow the trainers and trainees smugly to tick lots of Investors in People and suchlike boxes.

My own forays into the world of training since leaving the FCO have taught me a lot. Such as the central role of video analysis.

There is just nothing to compare with being filmed then watching yourself in a role-play of some sort, even for just a few minutes. The gripping horror of the occasion is utterly memorable and so has a transformatory effect, as I noted last week in Warsaw.

We ran short mock TV interviews for the senior course members. They seemed to learn more about themselves and about 'communication' in those short role-plays than they had done in years of more formal training based on presentations and principles.

Conclusion?

Sometimes courses generate such seething loathing that participants invent new portmanteau words to express their contempt, in this case damning my tendency to be at once too anecdotal and too toadying:

Much too much anectodiacal (huge loss of time). Need of more time for case studies and exchange between participants.

Fine. Give me more time, and you'll get better training.

Suggestion  Readers! Send in short examples of what training has worked for you and why! Then I'll compile them and we can start to change the world

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BBC: Through The Microscope, Darkly

31st August 2010

Over at Business and Politics I peer at the BBC through a powerful microscope.

Droll opening paragraph, or at least I thought so.

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Topless Women

29th August 2010

Should women be allowed to go topless?

That's the question posed by National Go Topless Day. Which maybe you missed last week. Too bad.

Yet it somehow seems to me to be the wrong question, or at least it is replete with all sorts of curious assumptions which may need challenging:

My dear fellow, who will let you?

That's not the point. The point is, who will stop me?

 

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Top 30 Libertarian Blog

27th August 2010

Back from Warsaw this afternoon to find myself at 12th place on the 2010 Total Politics UK Libertarian Blog list.

Up from 17th place last year, and just below the Adam Smith Institute. Wo!

Big Libertarian climber this year is Anna Raccoon, jumping from from 13th place to 6th. Here she is today, giving us a story with (as it happens) a Polish angle.

Here is another top performer, Devil's Knife aka Devil's Kitchen - always good to see what he has to tell us about fake charities - charities whose dominant source of income is taxpayers' money, and not all of which are Leftist.

Many thanks to all readers who took the trouble to support this blog by voting in the survey this year.

Much appreciated.

 

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Top Speechwriting: How To Raise The Audience's Intensity?

21st August 2010

Part of next week will be spent giving some Speechwriting Training.

One of the things I have been taught on my Mediation training is the technique of 'reflecting back'.

In other words, a good mediator (so it is said) is not one who shows 'neutrality' by being aloof and detached from the feuding parties. That may work in winning some credibility, but it is not enough to win their trust.

To do that effectively you need to tune in to the emotional signals coming from the parties.

If they get angry and agitated, you should try to raise the tempo and 'intensity' of your reaction to their anger/agitation so that they feel that you are 'with' them - at least to the point of understanding why they are upset. For example by leaning towards them and raising your voice a clear notch.

The problem with someone giving a speech is exactly the opposite. Normally the speaker is quite interested in what s/he has to say, but the audience by contrast need to be convinced to tune in to the speaker and not play with an e-gadget until the dreary session ends.

So the speaker has the difficult task of quickly catching the audience's attention and then gently pulling them up through the gears to raise them to somewhere close to where the speaker himself is.

The speaker in other words has a higher level of 'intensity' than the audience. And if that is not managed well by the speaker, it can lead to disaster!

For a classic high-profile case of two speakers failing to get this right and being roundly humiliated, check out this one:

Thus it was that as the speeches droned on, more and more Bosnians present simply tuned out and carried on chatting among themselves.

An unseemly competition started. Which was louder? The mass of Bosnian guests, or the VIP speakers?

When the German Foreign Minister got going, a mini-crisis was reached. He could not be heard at all other than by shouting.

Which he did. To little avail.

The louder he went, the more the massed Bosnians themselves talked loudly, almost as if (perish the thought) they spontaneously thought it would be a good Balkan joke to drown him out.

So we connoisseurs of the Diplomatic Grotesque witnessed a fascinating moment.

A leading European politician from a country which had given generously to the post-war reconstruction effort was left bawling at a large crowd of senior Bosnians that they should be grateful to Europe, and respond accordingly.

And they did respond. They just ignored him.

All not-so-obvious enough.

But can you train people to cope with this sort of thing when they are not necessarily good speakers and may think they have little to say? And where does the speech-writer fit in?

Good questions. Let's see.

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Off To Warsaw

21st August 2010

Off go sundry Crawfs to Poland for a few days, myself mainly working.

Not much posted here this month. Am I running out of steam for this blogging business? Or is it just grey, muggy, flat August malaise time?

Sigh.

Quickies to keep you amused for a few days while I am away ...

A gripping piece by Parag Khanna on the rise of cities over at Foreign Policy. OK, plenty is already out there on this subject, but this analysis looks at the wider foreign policy issues:

... just 100 cities account for 30 percent of the world's economy, and almost all its innovation. Many are world capitals that have evolved and adapted through centuries of dominance: London, New York, Paris. New York City's economy alone is larger than 46 of sub-Saharan Africa's economies combined. Hong Kong receives more tourists annually than all of India.

These cities are the engines of globalization, and their enduring vibrancy lies in money, knowledge, and stability. They are today's true Global Cities...

Neither 19th-century balance-of-power politics nor 20th-century power blocs are useful in understanding this new world. Instead, we have to look back nearly a thousand years, to the medieval age in which cities such as Cairo and Hangzhou were the centers of global gravity, expanding their influence confidently outward in a borderless world.

... perhaps borders don't need to change at all, but rather melt away, so long as locals have access to the nearest big city no matter what "country" it is in. This is, after all, how things really work on the ground, even if our maps don't always reflect this reality.

Think of the human energy whirring away in these new conglomerations. Where does that leave the rest of us?

Maybe the wholepoint of becoming irrelevant, marginalised and parochial is that ... you don't realise it's happened?

Back on home ground, Simon Heffer reminds us of the use of the gerund:

I once got a job by finding 24 mistakes in a piece of prose in which I had been told I would find 20, and which had been given to me as part of a test during an interview: this was because the person who had set the test, good though his English was, did not know about gerunds.

Therefore he had not seen that phrases such as “it was the shop being closed that was the last straw” should have read “it was the shop’s being closed”.

Quite. But if almost no-one other than Simon grasps that nice grammar point in English any more, has that part of the language effectively died out?

Finally, I have mentioned Ray Bradbury here on this site. He's still writing away at 90. Here is a glowing account of his life and significance by James E Person Jnr:

What remains for those who haven’t read Bradbury for some time are memorable books worth rereading and a collage of unforgettable images: the canals of Mars filled with fragrant wine, a gun that fires deadly bees, a man covered with animated tattoos, a cocky gun-slinging bully sitting down in a barber chair for his final shave at the hands of a barber he’s threatened once too often, a spaceship harvesting a small fragment of the sun, a frightened old woman racing home through the midnight streets of Green Town and groping for the light switch in a darkened room in which a stranger awaits, and an adolescent boy fearing for the life of his humble, decent father amid the autumn twilight in a small Midwestern town.

So if you are not familiar with this genius, buy this to get started

Plenty more Bradbury marvels where that comes from.

S'long.

What? You want one more?

Lileks as always is on fire. Can you look at his searching deconstruction of Peter Lorre in Mr Moto's Last Warning and not burst out laughing?

No, you can't.

Do widzenia!

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Ground Zero 'Mosque': Another Obama Speech Clunker

19th August 2010

President Obama has pronounced on the Cordoba Center (aka Ground Zero Mosque) controversy.Speaking to a Ramadan gathering he said this:

Recently, attention has been focused on the construction of mosques in certain communities -– particularly New York.

Now, we must all recognize and respect the sensitivities surrounding the development of Lower Manhattan.  The 9/11 attacks were a deeply traumatic event for our country.  And the pain and the experience of suffering by those who lost loved ones is (sic) just unimaginable.  So I understand the emotions that this issue engenders.  And Ground Zero is, indeed, hallowed ground. 

But let me be clear.  As a citizen, and as President, I believe that Muslims have the same right to practice their religion as everyone else in this country. And that includes the right to build a place of worship and a community center on private property in Lower Manhattan, in accordance with local laws and ordinances. 

This is America.  And our commitment to religious freedom must be unshakeable.  The principle that people of all faiths are welcome in this country and that they will not be treated differently by their government is essential to who we are.  The writ of the Founders must endure.

... And let us also remember who we’re fighting against, and what we’re fighting for.  Our enemies respect no religious freedom.  Al Qaeda’s cause is not Islam -– it’s a gross distortion of Islam.  These are not religious leaders -– they’re terrorists who murder innocent men and women and children.  In fact, al Qaeda has killed more Muslims than people of any other religion -– and that list of victims includes innocent Muslims who were killed on 9/11.

Good, principled stuff? Indeed rather safe, placing an emphasis on traditional US constitutional principles around which all might rally?

So the media thought, frothed up by White House spinners.

But then it all unravelled at speed, with all sorts of Democrats moving to put some distance between the President and themselves in this issue and sundry 'clarifications' coming from the White House.

Power Line astutely suggests where the President went wrong:

Obama's Cairo speech, delivered shortly after he became president, also relied heavily on the language of synthesis. The Jews have been hard done by, and so have the Palestinians, he argued. The synthesis lies in both groups recognizing the other's grievances, and proceeding from there.

The appeal of this type of rhetoric is obvious. First, Obama was able to cast himself as a reasonable man, capable of seeing both sides of an issue. Second, he was able to cast himself as a decent and charitable man, capable of seeing the good in the fiercest of clashing adversaries. Third, he was able to cast himself as an intelligent man (albeit in the facile manner of a bright college sophomore or a slightly above average law student), capable of finding similarities where lesser intellects can spot only differences.

Finally, and most importantly, Obama the synthesizer cast himself as a problem solver. His seeming ability to identify common ground was not just an exercise in intellectual nimbleness and human decency. For many, it held out the promise that longstanding conflicts might be made to recede...

... But Obama did not embrace, even intellectually, a synthesis in this matter. Rather, he came down squarely on the side of the imam. He spoke up on behalf of his right to build the mosque on "hallowed ground" without ever suggesting that doing so might be wrong or misguided.

In fact, he implied that putting the mosque at this spot was a favorable development because our willingness to have it there reaffirms who we are as a people and drives home the contrast between our values and those of jihadists...

Jonah Goldberg is unimpressed with the way Obama has tackled this one:

The supposedly pragmatic political wise men have been blinded by ideology or incompetence and have failed to see what was so obviously around the corner. A big, honking Islamic center built to capitalize on 9/11, in a building that was damaged on 9/11? What could go wrong?

... “He felt he had a responsibility to speak,” said David Axelrod, as if he were drafting the inscription on Obama’s Profiles in Courage Award. But by Saturday morning, Obama tried to weasel out of it with the sort of lawyerly parsing everybody despises. Speaking to reporters in Florida, Obama claimed he had no position on the “wisdom” of the project, and anyone who mistook his academic comments about building a mosque in Lower Manhattan for an endorsement misunderstood him.

Well, if his real intent was to remain agnostic, he should fire his speechwriter immediately.

Of course that wasn’t his intent. He wanted to seem heroically principled. But when he was hit with an entirely foreseeable backlash (according to one poll, nearly 70 percent of Americans oppose the mosque), he once again led with his glass jaw and, in effect, told everybody they were too dimwitted to grasp the brilliant nuance of his remarks.

Fire the Obama speechwriter? Yes.

Forgetting the merits, look at the poor technique and remember that it is not that politicians make mistakes as they all do - it is the quality of those mistakes which are so revealing.

Basically, the Obama 'remarks' erred towards a trite, oh-too-clever legal formalism which was clearly just not politically or morally good enough in the circumstances.

As some Democrat-leaning commentators are saying, President Bush would not have been so obviously banal. Whether or not you liked the policy, Bush's speeches had a sense of intellectual integrity, of someone not ducking the hard questions. Of, in a word, leadership.

Here's what I would have drafted. Note not so much the language, but the underlying chain of thought:

The 9/11 attacks were a deeply traumatic event for our country.  The pain and  suffering for those who lost loved ones are unimaginable.  Ground Zero is, indeed, hallowed ground. 

Some people see the 9/11 attacks as an onslaught by Islam itself against the USA. That's not what I believe. Al Qaeda’s cause is not Islam -– it’s a gross distortion of Islam.  These are not religious leaders -– they’re terrorists who murder innocent men and women and children.  In fact, al Qaeda has killed more Muslims than people of any other religion -– and that list of victims includes innocent Muslims who were killed on 9/11.

Our country allows freedom of religion. We have thousands of churches and synagogues and chapels and mosques. People are free to build new ones, subject to local planning laws and such formalities.

This is not the case in many parts of the world. And it is bound to offend and even annoy many Americans if support for this new Islamic centre in this special area of New York comes from countries which oppress Christianity, Judaism other religions in the name of Islam, or from Islamic groups which demand respect for their supposed sensitivities but rail against the sensitivities of others.

Tolerance is not a blank cheque for those who think ill of our country to abuse its freedom. But we do not deal with intolerance by being intolerant ourselves...

Something like that would have touched on the core policy and philosophical dilemmas here, at least obliquely. And sent a firm but friendly message to Islam that yes, it too needs to work towards the highlands of freedom and open-mindedness.

Instead, as Goldberg says the President's poor drafting has simply made the whole business much worse, not least for Obama himself:

By elevating an already stupid idea and a poisonous debate, he forced everyone to take a side on a polarizing issue (including vulnerable Democrats like Nevada senator Harry Reid, who, late Monday, came out against the mosque), while undermining his own credibility, not to mention America’s reputation around the world.

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That Ground Zero 'Mosque' Roundup

19th August 2010

Here is a round-up of interesting links on the so-called GZM controversy in the USA - should a Muslim cultural centre cum mosque be built close to the site of the 9/11 terror attacks on the World Trade Center in New York?

Or not? If not, why not?

Peter Beinart says that in revealing a geyser of Islamophobic hysteria (or something like that) America has disgraced itself:

Once upon a time, the “war on terror” was supposed to bring American values to Saudi Arabia. Now Newt Gingrich says we shouldn’t build a mosque in Lower Manhattan until the Saudis build churches and synagogues in Mecca—which is to say, we’re bringing Saudi values to the United States.

Not exactly.

What in fact has happened is an unSaudi-like good ol' US public intellectual ding-dong about Rules and Values, with all sorts of people on Left and Right alike spiralling off in unexpected directions.

Take William Dalrymple, not normally associated with wild-eyed radicalism, who points out some of the subtler issues involved. The Cordoba Centre is being supported by the Sufi tendency in Islam, one the West should encourage:

Feisal Abdul Rauf of the Cordoba Initiative is one of America’s leading thinkers of Sufism, the mystical form of Islam, which in terms of goals and outlook couldn’t be farther from the violent Wahhabism of the jihadists... 

His slightly New Agey rhetoric makes him sound, for better or worse, like a Muslim Deepak Chopra. But in the eyes of Osama bin Laden and the Taliban, he is an infidel-loving, grave-worshiping apostate; they no doubt regard him as a legitimate target for assassination.

Victor Hanson Davis is more cynical:

Here at home well-meaning liberals would applaud the audacity of hope in positioning a mosque near the 9/11 site in order to “commemorate” the “tragedy,” as a token of tolerance where all could come together and thus avoid another misunderstanding of the sort that sent two airliners crashing into two skyscrapers

 

Abroad, the message would, of course, be interpreted quite differently: To the radical Islamists, a mosque rising near Ground Zero well before a new World Trade Center is constructed is a message of Islamic triumphalism — in the long tradition of minarets on the conquered Santa Sophia in Istanbul, the eighth-century Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem rising on the site of the destroyed Jewish Second Temple, and the great mosque at Cordoba retrofitted from the gutted Christian Church of St. Vincent.

Elsewhere too views diverge. See eg some Muslim Republicans:

Muslim Republicans like David Ramadan and Randa Fahmy Hudome see it as a free-exercise issue that shouldn’t be demagogued for midterm gain, and longtime blogger Aziz Poonawalla gave a thoughtful interview to fellow blogger Scott Payne reiterating his support for the project and his misgivings about how both opponents and Park51 management have handled the subject.

Why not go all the way on tolerance while we're at it? Build a bar for gay Muslims right next to the new Center:

"I hope that the mosque owners will be as open to the bar, as I am to the new mosque. After all, the belief driving them to open up their center near Ground Zero, is no different than mine. My place, however, will have better music."

Liberty Girl looks vigorously at the whole business from the point of view of first principles of freedom:

So now come these guys who want to build a mosque.  Not just any mosque, but named for freaking Cordoba, the virtual capital of Moor occupied Spain.  And not just any place, but in the still bleeding heart of an American tragedy.

Can anyone, ANYONE, show me where in the Constitution we are guaranteed the right to not be offended?

... This is not about whether or not we, as a people, agree with the deliberate slap in the face the mosque and community center builders want to deliver to us.  Especially since they have chosen September 11 as the dedication date. 

They are absolutely trying to get a reaction from us.  They WANT us to either halt the deal so they can say “Look, the Americans are breaking their own Constitution to stop us from building this” or to let it go through so they can say “Look, the Americans are so weak they didn’t even try to stop us from building this.” 

Either way, they get their propaganda. Either way, they can turn to their Muslim brethren and boast about how they outwitted us...

She advocates letting them build:

I think I would rather be called coward and know that it isn’t true than be called bully and know that it is.

Maybe that's the point in all thus hubbub?

That the same sort of people who clamour for Islamic 'sensitivities' to be respected and edge towards giving militant Muslims a de facto right to ban anything which 'offends' them (eg cartoons) are now insisting primly on Muslims' freedom under the law to build a mosque wherever they choose, regardless of the sensitivities of others who might be unhappy?

Which brings us elegantly to President Obama's speechwriter. See next posting.

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Parents, Children, Books

19th August 2010

UK Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg offers this thought:

All parents have a responsibility to nurture the potential in their children. I know how difficult it can be to find the time and the energy to help with homework at the end of a busy day. But if we give them that kind of attention and support when they are young, they will feel the benefits for the rest of their lives.

He singled out universities as riven by "educational apartheid", dominated by students from better-off homes.

Today we sit here twitching with fear as we await the latest Crawf AS-level exam results. How have we done as parents? Have we passed the Clegg Test?

I was brought up in a family which had never had a university graduate - back in the mid-1900s university was still very much a privilege for the better-off. But we had books. Indeed, my mother's house still has books. In boxes, on shelves, in piles. Masses of books, all read at one point or other but now gathering forlorn dust.

Books from that period were written in the pre-Internet and digital publishing age, by people trained in Victorian/Edwardian values of scholarship and rather heavy style. To me now most of them are unreadable. But who will want them?

By contrast books now are so much better presented; lively in style and design. We keep buying them, as I found my Sony Reader far too clunky to use and I have not yet got round to a Kindle or iPad.

So, for example, try this excellent book about prime numbers which I was reading last night:

Beautifully written, accessible to non-mathematicians, explaining vast and subtle things in a gripping way. Buy it.

Otherwise Crawf Minima is ploughing through the Moomintroll stories:

And I am reading her I, Robot by Isaac Asimov:

Every schoolgirl needs to know the Three Rules of Robotics. Forget the silly film. These stories written decades ago are fascinating for their moral content and technical prescience in so many ways. But see too their failure to spot that once humans can create brilliant robots, they also will have worked out how to do away with heavy robot manuals when they go wrong. 

My father's principle was simple. If you want a book, we'll get it. That's the same way we do things. Hence a lot of books round our house. Including even this dubious specimen:

We don't drink much or smoke. Spare cash goes into this sort of thing. Does that give young Crawfs an edge in life, or at least a keen intellectual curiosity and pleasure in the unexpected and difficult? I hope so. 

Stop Press   News just in. 7 Maths AS Levels taken this year. Marks from 90-100% in five of them. Yo.

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EU Foreign Policy Picks Up The Telephone - But Says What?

13th August 2010

The Daily Telegraph reports that the new EU Ambassador In Washington Joao Vale de Almeida is bent on elbowing out of the way such diplomatic minnows as HM Ambassador Nigel Sheinwald:

Mr Vale de Almeida has stressed to Washington officials and politicians that under the EU's' Lisbon Treaty, he has more power than his predecessors. "I'm the first new type of ambassador for the European Union anywhere in the world," he said. "I'm supposed to have a wider mandate than my predecessors."

Mr Vale de Almeida said: "Our delegations now cover a wide spectrum of issues well beyond the economic dimension, trade dimension and regulatory dimension, to cover all policies in the union, including foreign policy and security policy...

In a comment that has come to symbolise the American view of the EU, Henry Kissinger, the former US secretary of state, is once said to asked: "When I want to talk to Europe, who do I call?"

In a response to that question, Mr Vale de Almeida declared: "In this area code, you call me." The ambassador insisted that he did not wish to "impose myself" on member states' ambassadors, who will continue to oversee "bilateral matters." But he declared: "Where we have a common position, I am the one leading the show."

Where to start?

Let's start here, with Mr Vale de Almeida's appointment to this top job. A controversial choice.

His mainstream diplomatic and sharp-end overseas credentials? Nil, other than an important job running Commission Chairman Barroso's office in Brussels, reached via the giddy heights of the EU's policies on something called Youth:

Youth, Society, Communication. Particular responsibility for Youth policies and programmes, including White Paper on future of Youth Policy in Europe and Open Method of Coordination on Youth

So when Hillary Clinton picks up the telephone at 0300 hours to ask the new EU Ambassador about a sudden crisis, she is not likely to get an informed and operationally nimble response (unless of course the issue involves Coordinating EU Youth, in which case she has hit the jackpot).

Surely there's more to it than this? As Mr Vale de Almeida himself says, where the EU has a Common Position he leads the show.

But therefore what exactly?

Common Positions tend to be limp, unreadable texts drawn up from lowest common denominator drafting exercises expressing such agreement as might be manageable as between 27 countries.

See eg this one on Cuba which has floated listlessly, dead in the water since 1996(!). The point being that there is no consensus to say anything simple and reasonable such as "The EU calls on the Cuban leadership to hold free and fair elections".

On perhaps the one basic issue where the USA might expect the EU to take a robust and united view, namely which countries in Europe exist, there is no Common Position: various EU member states do not recognise Kosovo.

In other words, if there is a Common Position it probably means that the subject is operationally unimportant or at least politically routine, even if various and not unworthy EU spending activities will flow therefrom.

Moreover, the EU Ambassador in Washington has a tough job in maintaining even that Position. He dare not stray far if at all from it, lest he annoy one or other member state who approved that Position and only that Position.

This means that if Hillary asks him what direction EU policy is likely to take if (say) things get worse in N Korea, he'll have no mandate to have a sensible conversation with her. Because the direction of said EU policy - if there is to be one going beyond mere declaratory noises - will be shaped mainly by the EU Bigs (London, Berlin, Paris and so on) ,as always. As he will have to tell her if she rudely asks.

In other words, the EU has indeed given Washington a single telephone number to call.

But all Washinghton really gets is a telephone answering service with a complicated digitalised menu leading to monotonous readings of assorted Common Positions which the USA already has in its files.

For a sensible conversation looking at a wide range of options including top-level handling of the N Korea portfolio at the UN in New York, here's the place they need to call.

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The Magma Chart

13th August 2010

The grim profile of the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet.

Volcanic?

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Gay Diplomats: Any Limits?

13th August 2010

Here's an interesting one.

The German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle is homosexual. He has decided not to take his partner with him on official visits to countries where homosexuality is a prosecutable crime.

His somewhat obscure argument as quoted in the excellent Spiegel Online:

We want to promote the concept of tolerance in the world ...

But we also don't want to achieve the opposite by behaving imprudently. At the same time it is important that we live according to our own measures of tolerance and that we do not adopt the sometimes less tolerant measures of others.

This position prompts an energetic rant from one Henryk Broder:

One doesn't have to read his remark twice to understand what it signifies: Tolerance is a wonderful thing, but we shouldn't push our luck. This is more than the usual hot air from a politician. Westerwelle's words are an example of moral hara-kiri in slow motion, and they're a disgrace for Germany...

It also isn't entirely clear whether Westerwelle truly considered the potential impact of his statement or was simply babbling away. How does he intend to "promote the idea of tolerance in the world" by making allowances for the intolerance of his hosts? From his office at FDP headquarters? By giving the opening remarks at the Christopher Street Day event in Cologne?

Or perhaps by covering up his partner in a burqa on overseas trips?

Westerwelle isn't malicious or stupid. He just has a shocking tendency to speak without reflecting. The very idea that we ought to behave prudently so as not to "achieve the opposite" is wrong. This way of thinking begins with the desire not to provoke anyone, in the interest of preserving the peace, and ends with self-abandonment.

'Babbling away'? A German!? Unmöglich.

Is Westerwelle right? Mainly yes.

Because one of the ways in which the world works is by people more or less accepting the policies of other countries when they visit them. Diplomats have to especially careful - that comes with the job.

Diplomats based overseas are expected to behave in a way befitting senior guests and (in theory) are under strict instructions to respect local laws, hence periodic flurries over unpaid Embassy parking fines - always a tricky one. But where do local laws merge mysteriously into unspoken and slippery local standards? Not always easy to identify what is ruled in - and ruled out - in practice. 

One way or the other, those venerable (if not venereable) norms of interstate intercourse would be undermined if the Foreign Minister (no less) of the Embassy concerned arrived in the local capital and appeared to be challenging head-on a well-known and controversial law.

Any visit by him + partner to a country where homosexuality is illegal in effect is some sort of act of defiance - I dance on your puny laws and prejudices, o pathetic foreigners.

It puts the host government (who may be edging towards being more flexible in this area) in an awkward spot vis-a-vis their own public opinion: why are you letting foreigners come here and break our laws?

Perhaps above all, it simply creates high-profile controversy of a sort which is likely to make things locally tougher for equality principles in the short term at least, and in any case detracts from if not wrecks completely whatever core objectives an official foreign visit might have.

Look at it another way. Just say Germany legalised cannabis, on the solid basic human rights ground that smoking cannibis was a private matter and none of the state's business. Would that make it ok for the Foreign Minister to take a joint with him and puff away at official events overseas in countries where cannabis was still illegal?

Obviously not. Not an exact parallel, perhaps, but good enough.

There are other ways to get the message of equality across to foreign governments at a high formal level. The partner can be officially invited to functions hosted in Germany by Herr Westerwelle for foreign dignitaries from 'intolerant' countries. In which case Herr Westerwelle might not be surprised if all of a sudden the willingness of foreign dignitaries to attend such events declines sharply - they will not want to be presented in Germany and at home as photo-opportunity fodder for gay rights.

Or the German Embassy in said intolerant countries can organise seminars on gay and other equal rights issues. If, that is, it does not want to deal with demonstrations and protests froth'd up by angry locals annoyed at German 'interference' in their internal affairs.

One other angle. How could Herr Westerwelle defend himself against accusations from a homosexual member of the German Embassy in a country he was visiting who had been posted there partnerless to avoid breaking local law: why are you using your seniority to get private privileges your Ministry deny the rest of us?

The hard fact is that some diplomatic issues fall into the Alas, All Too Difficult tray. And this is one of them, even though gay rights are gaining ground round the planet; see this Wikipedia round-up, which brings out just how many, hem, permutations there are in this area.

It all comes back to how and where a country Flies the Flag:

Order all our EU Embassies to fly that, er, MGB GT Flag immediately.”

"A certain circumspection may be in order, Sir. If we establish the practice with some care in EU Europe, we can move on with confidence and ambition and due deliberation elsewhere. North Korea and Belarus suggest themselves for the next decade. Antarctica too, perhaps, subject to close consultation with the other Antarctic Treaty Parties..?”

Zimbabwe?” 

“We in fact flew the LGBT flag there this morning, Sir. This was done with a view to broadening their horizons away from their current political difficulties, by opening a new national dialogue about tolerance and fair play. This plan alas backfired. The rival political factions united against us, in an unexpected but robust show of unity. Our High Commission was burned down this morning. In the ensuing skirmishes with the mob the flag – alas still attached to the flag-pole itself - was used to impale the High Commissioner in a most unhappy and even theatrical fashion...”

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Kyrgyzstan v Kirgistan v Google

11th August 2010

When the Soviet Union broke up, an interesting issue emerged: how should the FCO/HMG name (in English) the many new countries which had appeared on the world scene?

Those of us at the policy coal-face had a radical idea. Go for the simplest option, ie the one most easy to spell and more or less resembling how the name was pronounced in English. Thus we preferred Kirgistan to Kyrgyzstan or even Kyrgystan when describing the territory known as the Kyrgyz Republic (Кыргыз Республикасы).

The FCO Department dealing with Geographical Names were aghast and launched a fierce rearguard action, arguing that the 'correct' way to deal with such problems was to use the formal standards for transliterating (or whatever the word is) the original linguistic form into English. Thus here the (to us) somewhat strangled Russian ы vowel is best represented with a y, not an i.

Tricky. To my ear the ы sounds most like the ur sound in murder, or indeed the ir sound as in fir-cone.

This issue also comes round in Polish. Thus the muted uh sound represented by the y in Kaczynski - in Polish the i vowel is prounced quite strongly as a short ee (as in me).

The brave policy officers lost out to the holders of the purist flame, so now we have Kyrgystan on the FCO website.

This looks like a feeble compromise, to avoid scaring English-speakers by removing a z. There is a definite z sound in the local languages - the people there are Kyrgyz - so if anything it ought to be Kyrgyzstan.

There is no logic to any of this. If there were, we would not call Deutschland 'Germany'. Partly it's fashion and partly some sort of linguistic political correctness: once upon a time we had Peking, then we were told that it was Beijing. The Chinese started to get peeved that we were not using the name of their capital correctly, and said so.

Paree anyone?

The only issue in all this of course is the eternal one. Who decides?

Take the FCO. It had and for all I know still has a team of people who are deemed to be the Deciders, and from whom the FCO and the rest of Whitehall and thereby much of the UK media and schools take a lead. This echoes an earlier tradition when decisions of this sort were issued by an unchallenged authority.

But these days things are different. Authorities are challenged. Not only governments make maps. People themselves do en masse, using Google and other technologies.

Which is in part why Google has different names for different places, depending upon where you make the search.

Geography and borders - like everything else these days, becoming more ... elusive?

As usual there are pros and cons:

Unpopular as it may be, such uncertainty has become a central dynamic of life on the Internet. The erosion of traditional authority is followed quickly by anxiety over its absence, from Google to Wikipedia to the lesser-known precincts of PetitionOnline—where millions of people direct their impassioned grievances not to any official arbiter but straight into the ether.

What results is an irony. The digital culture that encourages the inclusion of multiple names for a single feature on a map is the same digital culture that has encouraged hundreds of thousands of Iranians to voice their discontent. The very medium incites nationalism, yet also frustrates it.

... What is Google? Is it a repository for all of our mutually exclusive claims, or is it a higher power to which we appeal? It cannot be both, and yet we seem to treat it as both. This tension may only heighten going forward.

“In a world where mapmaking is cheap and anyone can do it,” Goodchild says, “you would eventually expect things to become more and more local.” In such a future, either we will reconcile ourselves to the lack of a central arbiter, or the conflicts will be all over the map. 

Great article. Read it. Via Browser.

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Kim Philby: Spier (And Liar?)

9th August 2010

What was Kim Philby really up to when he started working for the Soviet Union?

Boris Volodarsky follows the complicated story:

Stalin had decided that one of the ways to solve the ‘Spanish problem’ would be to assassinate Franco. In 1937 Soviet military intelligence, the GRU, sent several operatives on a mission to murder the Caudillo.

Before the GRU officers started to move, the NKVD asked Maly in London to find an agent for a risky assignment in the rebel zone. Philby was chosen partly because he had expressed interest in Spain and had holidayed there with his wife in 1935. It was not concealed from Philby that his task would be to find a way to approach Franco and kill him...

Read on ...

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BBRU 279

9th August 2010

Is hosted by a Very British dude.

Including a deft analysis by The Melangerie about the impact (or not) on the British economy of abolishing slavery in the C19. It responds to a piece by Johann Hari which attacks working conditions in China.

And farewell Nee Naw.

Oh, and here is an interesting website, namely a simple account of all the insults and unpleasantness a female cyclist encounters pedalling around London. Complete with handy maps and lots of bad language...

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Check Your Numbers

8th August 2010

Tim Worstall takes a typical piece of headline-grabbing journalistic fluff ...

Within 10 years, the Gates Foundation is projected to have a GDP bigger than 70 per cent of the world’s nations.

... and proceeds to work out what if anything it might mean.

Not much, it turns out.

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Castro Speaks! Twaddle?

8th August 2010

The BBC lovingly analyses Fidel Castro's speech to the 'National Assembly' in Havana:

... a hush descended ... He smiled and waved to the crowd as he lapped up the warmth of their applause ... a short but polished performance from the lively and healthy-looking Fidel Castro, his voice stronger and more assured ... Now it seems he may have found a new mission in later life - to save the world from nuclear destruction.

Thank goodness for that. I was getting worried there.

The whole speech lasted just over 10 minutes and then, seated, he fielded questions for another hour.

Er ... and what did he say then?

For that we turn to the Miami Herald.

Castro made a couple of blunders, referring to the Russians/Russia as 'the USSR' and 'the Soviets'. Plus he claimed that the Big Bang which formed the universe happened 18,000 years ago.

Really?

With all this fretting about nuclear war and now this, maybe he's getting all his Big Bangs muddled up?

What a farce.

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WW2 Quiztime

8th August 2010

As the Hiroshima bombing anniversary passes again, Richard Fernadez asks a question:

Try this quiz. Name the two greatest losses of civilian life in the Pacific war.

Hint. In both cases the civilian casualties were greater than Hiroshima’s. In one case the event took place on American soil.

Here's the answer.

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R2P: Imperialism With Smarter Trousers?

6th August 2010

Have you read this production of mine from 2008? An extract:

Recently I was a Harvard-sponsored seminar at which issues of international 'humanitarian intervention' and the Right to Protect were discussed.

I recalled seeing signs as one entered Harvard Square: Cambridge is a Domestic Violence-Free Zone.

I said that if you were walking down the street near Harvard and saw a man beating his wife/child/dog brutally with a stick in his front garden, you were morally and maybe even these days legally obligated to intervene to stop the violence.

Thus we long ago moved on from the idea that the 'sovereignty' of one's home was a shield behind which seriously illegal acts could proceed uninterrupted.

So if it is unacceptable to brutalise one person in one's own garden, why is it acceptable to brutalise millions of people in one's country without fear of being stopped?

Enter the Right to Protect (R2P), the idea (a) that states do have exclusive sovereignty over their own internal affairs but also (b) that that sovereignty is qualified: other members of the international communty may intervene to stop massive crimes against a population when that population's own government is either taking part in the mayhem - or is powerless or unwilling to stop it.

Sounds ok?

In principle, yes. In practice, no one trusts anyone else so basic motives are questioned.

Those governments making the case for an intervention to protect a beleaguered population from oppression will tend to be seen in many parts of the world as Western do-gooders bent on reasserting long-lost hegemony. The more so since, almost by definition, any intervention will have to be forceful to stop the oppression.

Those governments arguing against any intervention can end up defending the indefensible. Showing scant regard for freedom and democracy in their own country, they end up in substance siding with gangsters and warlords rather than their victims. Which is why insistence that the 'UN route' be followed is unconvincing. Too many undemocratic hypocrites taking part in the decision.

All of which leaves moderate, reasonable people like us in a dilemma.

On the one hand, when it comes to environmental we they are told that we all live in one big Global Village and that we have responsibilities accordingly. Urgent action is needed now to stop huge numbers of people dying in the future because of climate change.

On the other hand, what about sizeable numbers of people dying now because of corrupt governments, warlords and gangsters? What of our responsibilities towards them?

Yet aren't these problems all just too ... far away? Doesn't Afghanistan show the folly of such Western/international interventions? Why should we be the world's policeman? We can't even sort out puny Kosovo.

And so on.

The current reality is that the Obama administration from the top down has nothing much to say on all this, other than that it is all very difficult. True enough. European leadership is uncertain and uneasy. So if you're planning significant war crimes or genocide any time soon, the prospects for doing so successfully are quite good.

Here is a powerful essay by Richard Just which looks at these questions both as they apply to Sudan and generally. The middle section is perhaps mainly for Sudan experts, but the opening and closing sections give a firm, energetic and honest account of the policy and other realities in this most problematic of all foreign policy areas.

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This Explains A Lot

6th August 2010

Ever wondered why so much human activity is a bit ... odd?

Now we know.

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