Undaunted by the fact that it is the current EU Presidency, Poland goes to the polls today to elect a new Parliament.

Given that Poland has had a stable government for four years and arguably the best economic record in Europe during our ghastly economic crisis, one might have expected the Citizens Platform (PO) party led by Donald Tusk to romp home.

Yet (wild generalisation advisory) Poles have a lugubrious tendency towards finding fault with themselves, even when things are going well, if not especially when things are going well. Plus the typical continental proportional representation system makes an overall majority for any one party almost impossible, while giving space to turbo-charged populists to break into Parliament. This adds an almost random element to possible post-election coalition-forming.

So in recent weeks the main opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski (the brother of former President Lech Kaczynski who died in the Smolensk air crash) has closed the gap with astute populist positions, and might even be in the lead among 'likely voters'.

I am not close enough to the grainy detail of Polish politics any more to be able to offer you any sense of the underlying momentum in the campaign. Indeed, even when I was closely following the 2005 elections my crystal balls did not deliver and I got the result completely wrong. I had to grovel to London for forgiveness.

Here is a fine example of the Economist doing what it does best, giving a readable and pertinent analysis by someone who really understands a complicated subject:

Mr Tusk's short speech during his Tuskobus stop-off in the eastern town of Ryki illustrates the problem. "Choose who you can trust to steer Poland through this storm without people having to suffer, because elsewhere in Europe people really are starting to suffer", he declared. In other words, vote for me because it could have been worse.

This is a hard sell, and doesn't make up for the fact that PO failed to deliver its 2007 campaign promises, and that for all its "green island of growth" status, Poland still has an unemployment rate of over 10%, rising to 25% among the young...

... Still, although this campaign has shown what a wily political operator Mr Kaczyński can be, and put the fear into a perhaps complacent liberal establishment, the chances of a PiS government remain slim. The party has no obvious coalition partner, and PO's allies in the PSL party look set to retain their parliamentary status.

Ultimately, this election may be remembered not for the tenaciousness of Poland's conservative forces, but the emergence of their very opposite. Not all the young people disappointed with PO have drifted towards PiS. Some favour the party set up by Janusz Palikot, a rumbustious defector from PO who is running on a staunchly left-wing, anti-clerical platform.

A disciple of the "the more outrageous the better" school of publicity, Mr Palikot has blamed the Smolensk crash on the irresponsibility of the Kaczyńskis, and promises to legalise marijuana, gay marriage and abortion. Polls suggest these proposals could earn him as much as 8% of the vote on Sunday. Many outsiders accept the stereotype of Poland as a conservative Catholic country. The truth is a lot more complicated, and interesting.

One expert tells me that Law and Justice peaked a bit too soon and so are likely to come second behind Citizens Platform. But that might not matter if against all expectations Kaczynski can form a blocking majority in partnership with other smaller parties and, perhaps, set up some sort of ostensibly 'technocratic' government. Such a seemingly far-fetched scenario depends crucially on what smaller parties cross the line and make it into Parliament, and what price they demand for being cooperative.

The chances are that Donald Tusk will be better placed to form a new coalition. But don't bet too much on it.

If he does win, will he keep Radek Sikorski as Foreign Minister? Radek has been Poland's longest serving Foreign Minister and is doing a big and good job to modernise the Ministry. Plus he is one of Poland's most popular politicians. Maybe a bit too popular? But where to put him? Back to the Defence Ministry, now an unhappy place after the findings that Ministry pilots were in part to blame for the Smolensk crash? Would he accept that?

The one thing which is more or less certain is that unless Citizens Platform win by a storming margin, the ensuing coalition wranglings will drag on nicely, leaving the current government to see out most of the remaining weeks of the Polish Presidency.

All in all? Not much change.